Recently I ran across an interesting paper published by National Bureau of Economic Research entitled “Return Based Measue of Firm Quality”. I happen to have a suitable data and thought why not reproduce it on data from polish stock exchange in the free time. It turned out not so bad and thanks to being not filled with boring mathematical formulae I guess it’s also pretty accessible.
At the end of the post you may find a reproducible R code, which I (shamlessly) think is written not so bad.
Basically, the quality factor, that the authors of the paper analyze, is a general characteristic of firms that are well governed, have higher profitability or e.g have sound strategy. The difference between this factor and a popular value is that quality is not related to the valuation of a particular company, so it does not take into account market cap in its metrics. This factor was well described and analyzed by Clifford S. Asness, Andrea Frazzini & Lasse Heje Pedersen in their paper “Quality minus Junk”. It’s a very interesting read.
The authors of the paper which we’d like to reproduce try to measure the same factor but without relying on fundamental data, like gross margin or profit growth. The authors came with pretty interesting and clever way to do so. Basic idea is to:
So, with the strategy above, we would like to find the stocks that are doing relatively good in hard times, according to the popular saying of Warren Buffet: A rising tide lifts all boats. Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked.
The data I gathered contains information on 171 (approx. 40% of listed) randomly sampled stocks from Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE hereinafter), equally divided into 9 sectors. For each stock we have its market capitalization, prices and industry in which they operate. Number of sectors, as well stocks included should be high enough, so that there would be no stock-specific moves seen on the sector benchmarks. Performance of equally-weighted portfolios of these stocks looks as below:
Except from the healthcare during coronavirus crisis and trade and services in 2015:2017, most of the sectors have stable long term returns, which seems that there is, fortunately, not that much stock-specific moves that drives particular indexes.
Now with sector-wide returns we will identify stressful times, which are the worst performance months each year for each sector. The heatmap below shows performance of each sector and highlighted stressful period.
As one may see, the stressful times are often correlated during times of crisis (Look for example on October 2008), which is unsurprising given that most assets are more correlated during periods of higher volatility. But otherwise there is a significant amount of heterogeneity among sectors. That is why it is important to differentiate between those sectors, when looking at the quality stocks.
Another important variable that we should control is market capitalization. As common sense would suggest, there is a negative relation between market capitalization and volatility of underlying stock. We may try to confirm this relation on our sample of stocks.
Unsurprisingly, our data also exhibits this (significant) relationship. In our sample, an increase of market cap by 1% should lower standard deviation by 0.13%.
That’s why we will divide stocks also by their market cap. For each sector we have 19 stocks, so we can only afford to make two market cap brackets. We will split them by median of the sector market cap. If we would not divide by market capitalization, as previous chart shows, smaller market cap stocks would be less often identified as stress-stable, even though, in theory quality should be characterized by smaller company as well.
Now, with prepared data, we can form portfolios. At this stage there are various rules of doing it and backtest strategy over and over, which may effectively lead to selection bias under multiple strategies. This is a well described phenomena by Marcos Lopez de Prado (e.g in his AiML book). Thus, the portfolios will be choosen based on the straightforward and popular heuristic. We will weight positions according to their rank of performance during stressful time. For stressful vulnerable stocks the same rule apply inversely (the worse performance, the higher weight).
Our strategy will give us 4 portfolios. Big and small market cap of stressfull-stable (SS) and stressfull-vulnerable (SV, worst performing during stressful time). These portfolos as well as some benchmarks are plotted below.